The New Climate Havens

How northern lakeside cities have become an imperfect refuge for climate change

Art by Veronica Cruz

By Alicia Szczesniak

Once considered climate resilient, the city of Asheville, NC found its streets underwater and its buildings washed away. Hurricane Helene tore through the southern Appalachian mountains, destroying communities and leaving 101 people dead in North Carolina alone. The storm caused disastrous flooding, destroyed buildings, and left standing structures caked in mud and dirt. Even now, months later, residents are struggling to recover from the storm. 

But, Asheville’s destruction is an indicator of a greater problem: the effects of climate change are here, and there is nowhere to run. 

Asheville was once considered a “climate haven”, or a place that is less prone to extreme weather and natural disasters. Many cities have been given this title in the past few years, often owing to milder climates year-round and infrequent major weather events. 

Dr. Geoffrey Dabelko, senior advisor of the Environmental Change and Security program, views the term with a cautious optimism. 

“It has a logic of trying to differentiate parts of the world that have historically been less susceptible to direct climate impacts, usually extreme weather events” Dabelko said. However, he also believes that the term should be thought about critically, as past weather events and climate tendencies are not necessarily perfect reflections of the future. 

This is evident when looking at cities that were once considered climate havens. Like Asheville, cities like Portland, OR were once touted as places safe from climate change, or at the very least more resistant to its effects. The city generally enjoys a mild climate, with high temperatures rarely reaching 90°F and rarely falling below freezing. Additionally, the city receives about 36 inches of rain per year, keeping it from getting too dry or too humid. 

However, in 2021, a heat dome formed over Oregon, caused by a high pressure system forcing down hot air and forcing out cool sea breezes. Clouds were also unable to form, meaning that the sun was able to beat down on the city, essentially baking it. The temperature reached 116° F, over 40° hotter than the city’s June average high of 73°F. The heat dome led to multiple hospitalizations and deaths across the Pacific Northwest, and melted train power lines, leading to transportation shutdowns. 

And Portland is not alone in seeing an increase in adverse weather events such as this. States like California and Arizona are facing growing threats of air quality issues that make 2023’s wildfire pollution look like bonfire smoke in comparison. A study from the University of California showed that the average Californian was exposed to 3.6 times more smoke in 2017-2023 as opposed to 2010-2016. Additionally, in places like San Bernandino county, less than 10% of days are considered to have good air quality. 

But, not all hope is lost for people seeking a climate haven. Cities scattered across the Midwest, Great Lakes region and parts of the Northeast do not face many of the same massive meteorological events as the rest of the country. 

One of these cities is Buffalo, NY. The city sits on the shores of Lake Erie, and is known for its mild summers and snowy winters. The “Be in Buffalo” campaign has been stating that the city is better-protected from the disastrous effects of climate change than the rest of the country, advertising its resilient infrastructure and abundant freshwater. The proximity to the lake also has a moderating effect on the temperature, preventing summers from getting brutally hot and winters from getting bitterly cold. As a result, the city is often more insulated from heat waves and dangerous cold snaps. While the city certainly does experience some hot and cold days, it is better protected from them. 

But, like many cities, Buffalo is far from climate perfection. Large parts of Buffalo sit in the Lake Erie snowbelt, an area impacted more heavily by lake-effect snow. Lake-effect snow happens earlier in the winter, before the lake freezes over. As cold air from Canada moves over the unfrozen lake, it warms, picking up moisture. That moisture is then deposited as snow over the region. 

While lake effect snow has always existed for regions along the Great Lakes, it has become more pressing in recent years. When the water is still warm enough to stay in its liquid form, it can be picked up and formed into clouds. When these clouds become too heavy, they release moisture as precipitation, often as snow in colder months. Lake effect snow usually stops once the lake freezes over. But, as winter temperatures continue to rise, the lake does not freeze over, and lake effect snow can continue to bury the city in snow.

This is not purely speculation, either. New York State’s Climate Impact Assessment has noted that even though overall snowfall totals have declined, lake effect snow events may increase. Lake effect snow events have already begun to ramp up. In November 2022, a storm dropped six feet of snow on the city and its surrounding suburbs. In January 2024, a snowstorm dropped up to 42 inches of snow on Buffalo’s southern suburbs. Three days later, another snowstorm doubled that total. 

The lake effect snow trend continued into the winter of 2024-25, with a snowstorm dumping up to three feet of snow on parts of Buffalo in late November. 

But, despite the city’s track record of significant snowfall events growing in the past few years, many are still looking to it as a climate haven, and the city is working to prepare for newcomers. 

Buffalo sits in the Rust Belt, a region that includes large swathes of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois and Western New York, as well as small portions of West Virginia and Wisconsin. The area was once the thriving heart of American industry, with thousands of native-born citizens and immigrants descending upon the growing cities for jobs and opportunity. However, the region saw a major economic downturn starting in the 1950s, which resulted in many people leaving the area in search of other opportunities. What was once a hotbed of manufacturing was left to rust. 

But, this has left cities like Buffalo with a unique advantage when it comes to attracting newcomers. The many vacant areas and significantly smaller population compared to years past has lowered the city’s cost of living. This becomes evident when looking at other parts of the country. 

For example, Buffalo’s housing cost is roughly 6% lower than the national average, and utilities cost 5% less. This allows residents to maintain a relatively high standard of living whilst spending less than their fellow Americans. Additionally, the city has been developing its waterfront, which sits on the shores of Lake Erie, allowing for jobs to be created and entertainment to be found for residents. 

And the city’s revitalization efforts seem to be working, as the population grew for the first time in decades in 2020, jumping from 261,000 in 2010 all the way to 278,000. 

But this does not necessarily mean that everyone will be moving to climate havens immediately. After all, the cost of moving states entirely is high, especially for climate based reasons in an increasingly volatile climate. 

This can be seen when looking at other cities, even including the ones making major strides in climate adaptation. 

The seaside city of Naples, Florida, has been working to build a Climate Action Plan, which would allow the city to target and improve vulnerable infrastructure, as well as prepare for worsening weather events. The city lies directly in the path of many hurricanes, and faced severe destruction from Hurricane Ian in 2022. 

The storm caused $112 billion in damage, and destroyed large portions of the city. Even two years later, parts of Naples, such as Naples Pier, still remain closed as a result of severe damages. 

But, the city council developing the Climate Action Plan is working to make sure that things such as this do not occur again, and if they do, they are quickly fixed and minimally damaged. Therefore, this sense of safety may not incentivize people to move out of cities in the path of more climate-fuelled natural disasters

In fact, the city has actually gained an additional few hundred residents since 2020, indicating that many people are not exactly ready to move to a climate haven at a moment’s notice. But, this does not mean that people are not still leaving the state for other futures. After all, Florida is home to many places that are extremely vulnerable to climate change’s disastrous effects. The state is surrounded on three sides by water, is often among the first states to be hit by hurricanes, faces extreme heat and is extremely vulnerable to flooding due to its flat topography. 

Therefore, while the Sunshine State’s population is still growing, it’s no surprise that many residents are moving out, as well. In fact, 510,000 people left Florida in 2023. Many of these people left for other states in the Southeastern United States, such as Georgia and Texas, but a notable amount of the population also moved further north, to states like New York. And, unsurprisingly, one of the reasons often cited for leaving Florida was extreme weather. 

So while climate change might not be the sole reason for people moving to different parts of the country, it is definitely among them. 

This has given cities marketing themselves as climate havens a major point of attraction for newcomers. Like Buffalo, other cities have earned the title of a climate haven in recent years, though they may not always perfectly live up to the title. 

Burlington, Vermont is also considered a climate haven. The small city sits on the shores of Lake Champlain, a massive freshwater lake straddling the Northeastern border of New York and the Northwestern border of Vermont. This provides the city with a gorgeous waterfront area and helps moderate the temperature and climate of the area along the shore.

But, the city has seen a major increase in rainfall in recent years. In July 2024, remnants of Hurricane Beryl turned inland, slamming into Vermont. The storm brought significant flooding to large portions of the state, including the region just south of Burlington. This came almost exactly a year after another significant storm that also brought floods to Vermont. 

While the city of Burlington did not necessarily see devastating flooding, the Winooski River, which runs through the city, had swollen to flood stage. While the floods have not come for Burlington yet, it has been well established that the past and the present are by no means a perfect reflection of future events. 

This is exacerbated by Vermont’s poor rural infrastructure and natural features. Vermont’s soil is extremely rocky, and cannot hold much water, meaning that more water flows across the surface without being absorbed into the soil. Additionally, the state’s mountainous terrain means that streams are also in small, narrow channels, meaning that they flood much more easily. This can then flow over the nearby roads, many of which are made of dirt or gravel, and leave them in a state of disrepair. While Burlington itself may not be subjected to this yet, the surrounding areas are at a greater risk of seeing these floods affect their ability to travel from their homes. 

But, like Buffalo, Burlington is still a much safer area than many other parts of the country. Looking through FEMA’s natural disaster declarations map, Burlington has significantly fewer natural disasters throughout its history as compared to places like the aforementioned Naples. 

This also becomes glaringly apparent when looking at natural disasters in other locations in the past few years. 

In February 2021, the state of Texas was subjected to sub-freezing temperatures, something that the historically warm state has rarely seen before. Temperatures dropped as low as 5°F in College Station, and windchills were recorded at a frigid -8° F. Records were broken for the longest streak of temperatures below freezing in many areas, and the entire state was placed under a winter storm warning and a hard freeze warning, with some regions lasting for several days. 

This deep freeze led to a variety of detrimental impacts. Among these were the electrical outages. At its peak, 10 million people were left without power, some for several days. This, in turn, caused many residents to be left without heat, forcing many people to burn furniture and turn on ovens or face the bitter cold. Alongside this, electricity is required to treat water. Without electricity, people were also left without certifiably clean water. Hospitals also experienced power outages, which put additional stress on staff and buildings already facing problems from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The deep freeze led to $130 billion dollars in damages and economic losses for Texas alone. By March, 111 people were officially dead as a result of the event, most from hypothermia and carbon monoxide poisoning. 

Part of the reason that so much damage was caused from the deep freeze was due to Texas’ infrastructural inadequacies. Texas has its own power grid, disconnected from the rest of the nation, which runs on the Western Interconnection and the Eastern Interconnection grids. Texas’ power grid is fueled by a mixture of natural gas, coal, solar, nuclear and wind power. During the time period of the deep freeze, all of these were underperforming in energy generation, with the exception of solar power. The demand for power simply outpaced its supply, and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas was forced to either cut off power to millions or face an even bigger system collapse. 

Buffalo, on the other hand, is more adequately prepared for weather like this. When the weather gets cold and snowy, the city usually holds up well against the elements. Obviously, part of this is because the city has been building around cold weather for decades. But, it is also due to the fact that New York State begins contingency planning well before the winter season even starts, reviewing fuel inventories and continuing to do so as the weather turns. Additionally, the grid is able to switch between fuel types in times of high demand, allowing people to continue receiving power in their homes and businesses even in tense conditions. 

Buffalo has also already fully published a climate resilience plan. Namely, the city has started to assess the most vulnerable areas, especially historically disinvested neighborhoods. This would not only open the opportunity for economic improvement, but also for weather-proofing. The city has also been named as a bronze certified Climate Smart Community, both in 2019 and in 2022. 

As the floodwaters recede from Asheville, it becomes apparent that no place is completely safe from climate change, even places once thought to be insulated from its effects. But, as Buffalo digs itself out of the snow, it emerges as a potential safer haven. Though imperfect, cities like it may one day see an influx of people looking to seek refuge from a turbulent climate. Even if the city someday encounters disasters like its North Carolinian counterpart, it will still consistently fare better than many other parts of the nation.

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Wanna chat? Email Alicia at as589820@ohio.edu or follow her on instagram @alicia_szcz